Unknown objects flying by the US military (UFO) previously classified photos and movies, most of which appear to have some faint object moving strangely. Now the question arises that to what extent is it reasonable to assume these vaguely blurry figures of the other world. Regarding this, researcher Anders Sandberg of Oxford University in Britain has told the truth in The Conversation.
People assume unknown objects as UFOs
He said that people often see such things in the sky, about which they know nothing.
Should you believe in aliens or not?
Going into detail, it says that the likelihood of UFOs being aliens based on some evidence depends on how likely it is that if UFOs were in fact aliens, that evidence would appear. It can be said in this way that how likely is the actual evidence, which is extremely difficult. But what we’re really interested in is whether we should believe in aliens, or still not believe in aliens, if the evidence tells us.
What is the probability of seeing a UFO in the sky?
When we do this, we also get rid of the weird factor of how probabilistic the proofs are. This equation now shows how likely it is to see a UFO after viewing the footage. alien are, what is the probability that they are not. There are two factors in the equation. One is how likely we are to think there are aliens. Some might call it 50:50, let’s make it the first factor. While others may do it much less, such as 10-23. It is a statement of belief based on knowledge of the world (using the famous Drake equation for example).
Not as much evidence as to the existence of aliens
It needs to be multiplied by another factor, often called a Bayes factor. This shows how specific the evidence we see is for the existence of aliens versus the absence of aliens. If I see a mysterious blob of light in the sky that could be aliens but could also be many other things, the factor wouldn’t be much different from one – the evidence is as specific to aliens as to not being aliens, And I don’t get much change in belief.
The latest UFO revelations from the US government don’t update me much in the direction of aliens. Sure, there’s a lot of weird footage. But it can be explained by many other things. No alien photos here. Given that even earlier research has led me to think that the universe is pretty empty, I come to the conclusion of a very small individual possibility that UFOs are aliens.
One in a billion chances of aliens coming to Earth
Here is my calculation. I’m going to assume that the odds of aliens coming in are very small- I put it around one in a billion. Why? Because I think the chances of intelligent life per planet are really low, and if there was one, it would have spread throughout the universe. As for the specificity of the evidence, I’ll admit that strange things do appear, but none of it looks as special as aliens. I give the UFO a one in 500 million chance of being an alien after seeing the footage.
Image claiming to be UFO sightings