The third wave will be at the peak between October and November, the effect will be less than the second


Highlights:

  • Expert said – if a new variant is generated, the third wave can spread rapidly
  • Hospitalizations may drop during third wave
  • In the event of increased vaccination, the possibility of a third or fourth wave will be reduced.

New Delhi
A scientist on a government committee dealing with Covid-19 pandemic modeling has said that the third wave of the corona virus may peak between October-November, but during the second wave, if appropriate covid practices are not followed. One can get to see half of the daily cases reported.

It will be difficult if a new variant comes
Manindra Agarwal, working on the ‘formula model’ or mathematical estimation of Kovid-19, also said that if a new form of the virus arises, the third wave can spread rapidly. The Department of Science and Technology had last year constituted the committee to forecast the increase in cases of corona virus infection using mathematical models.

Criticism for not being able to anticipate the second wave
Besides Agarwal, scientist from IIT Kanpur, the committee also includes scientist M Vidyasagar from IIT Hyderabad and Deputy Chief of Integrated Defense Staff (Medical) Lt Gen Madhuri Kanitkar. This committee also faced criticism for not predicting the exact nature of the second wave of Covid.

Three models about the third wave of corona
Aggarwal said that while estimating the third wave, loss of immunity, the impact of vaccination and the possibility of a more dangerous nature were factored in, which was not done during the modeling of the second wave. He said that the detailed report would be published soon. “We have created three scenarios. One is ‘optimistic’. In this, we assume that life returns to normal by August, and there will be no resurgence of the virus. The second is ‘intermediate’. In this we believe that vaccination is 20 percent less effective than the optimistic scenario assumptions.

The second wave will stabilize by mid-August
Aggarwal said in various tweets, “The third one is ‘pessimistic’. It has a notion that differs from intermediate: A new, 25 percent more infectious mutated form spreads in August (this is not Delta Plus, which is no more contagious than Delta). According to the graph shared by Agarwal, the second wave is likely to stabilize by mid-August, and the third wave may reach its peak between October and November.

…so cases can come up to two lakhs everyday
The scientist said that in case of a ‘pessimistic’ scenario, in the third wave, the number of cases in the country could rise between 1,50,000 to 2,00,000 daily. He said that figure is half the number of cases at the peak of the second wave in the first half of May, when hospitals were flooded with patients and thousands died.

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half the cases compared to the second wave
“If a new mutant arrives, the third wave can spread faster, but it will be half as fast as the second wave,” said Agarwal. The delta form is infecting people who were infected with a different type. So it has been kept in mind.” He said that as the vaccination campaign progresses, the possibility of a third or fourth wave will be less.

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Reduction in cases of admission by vaccination
Agarwal said that in the optimistic scenario, the daily cases could be 50000 to 100000. At the same time, Vidyasagar said that the number of hospitalization cases may come down during the third wave. He cited the example of Britain where more than 60,000 cases were reported in January, with the daily death toll at 1,200. However, during the fourth wave, that number dropped to 21,000 and only 14 deaths occurred. Vidyasagar said, “Vaccination has played a major role in reducing the number of cases requiring hospitalization in the UK. ”

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