Digital Desk, New Delhi. The third wave of the dreaded coronavirus is likely to hit India by mid-August, while cases may peak in September. This apprehension has been expressed in a report released on Monday. However, the second wave in India is not over yet. The report, titled Covid-19: The Race to the Finishing Line, published by SBI Research, said that vaccination is the only defense as global data shows that on average, third wave cases are about 1.7 times the peak cases at the time of second wave. Huh.
In India only 4.6 per cent of the population has been fully vaccinated, while 20.8 per cent have received a single dose, which is the US (47.1 per cent), the UK (48.7 per cent), Israel (59.8 per cent), Spain (38.5 per cent), France ( 31.2) is much lower than other countries. According to the report, Soumya Kanti Ghosh, Group Chief Economic Advisor, State Bank of India, said, India has achieved its second wave peak on May 7 and as per the current data, the country may experience around 10,000 cases in the second week of July. is.
However, based on historical trends, cases may start rising by the second fortnight of August 21 with peak cases after at least a month, he added. The current cases are now hovering around 45,000 since last week, indicating that the devastating second wave is not yet over in the country. Even in the first wave, there was a gradual decline in cases, Ghosh said, with around 45,000 cases reported for 21 days before any meaningful drop in daily cases.
Apart from this, 51 cases of Delta Plus variant have been detected so far from 12 states. New cases in the top 15 districts, which are mostly urban, rose again in June. But the good thing is that their mortality rate is stable for three months. On the other hand, the share of rural districts in new cases has been refusing to decline significantly since July 2020, when it exceeded 45 per cent and has fluctuated since then.
“Vaccination seems to be the only answer,” Ghosh said. India has started giving more than 40 lakh vaccination doses per day. The report noted that states such as Rajasthan, Delhi, Himachal Pradesh, Kerala and Uttarakhand have already given both vaccines to a large percentage of the population above 60 years, but overall vaccination is low in rural areas. Tamil Nadu, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, Assam, Bihar and Jharkhand have a small proportion of those above 45 years of age who have been vaccinated. The report said that these states need to pick up the pace in vaccination.
The Delta strain, which has been detected in the US, UK, China, Japan, Poland, Portugal, Russia and Switzerland for the second time in April and May, hit India. It is the predominant form in the UK and 95 per cent of cases are now being sequenced. Citing the example of countries that are properly vaccinated like the UK and Israel, Ghosh said, one cannot become complacent even after getting the vaccine. Other measures such as masks, social distancing and being Kovid-appropriate are necessary.